What could Donald Trump’s victory mean for Luxembourg?

Elections in the USA

What could the victory of Donald Trump mean for Luxembourg?

The result of the American elections could have a significant impact on Luxembourg. Voices from Luxembourgish society and politics.

06 November 2024

Where are the USA heading? Towards another journey with Donald Trump? Would this be the best option for Europe and for Luxembourg? We invited Luxembourgish personalities from various areas to give their opinion.

Carlo Thelen, director-general of the Chambre de Commerce

According to Carlo Thelen, the possible re-election of Donald Trump could have a significant impact on trade relations.

Trump’s slogan – “America First” – applies in particular to the economy. What consequences could a new presidency of the Republican have on trade relations between the USA and Luxembourg?

Donald Trump is not a supporter of bilateral trade deficits, whether with China, which continues to be his favorite adversary, or with Europe, with which the former president has no ties. In trade matters, Donald Trump judges the success or failure of his country as a function of surpluses or deficits of external trade. It is for this reason that he also strives to tax all American imports at around 10%, in order to strengthen the competitiveness of American industry in its internal market. The objective of reindustrialization of the United States, pursued both by Trump and by Harris, will inevitably be carried out at the expense of other developed countries, notably in Europe.

In the trade domain, Donald Trump judges the success or failure of his country based on surpluses or deficits of external trade.

A possible re-election of Trump could, therefore, have a significant impact on trade relations between the USA and Luxembourg, as well as with the EU as a whole. The United States are an important sales market for products of the EU. Last year, European exports of goods to the USA exceeded the mark of 500 billion euros, of which Germany represented one third. This performance allowed the bloc to obtain a trade surplus with the United States of almost 160 billion euros, 60 billion of which for Germany alone, the most important partner of Luxembourg.

If US trade policy becomes more rigid and general import tariffs are introduced for EU countries, Luxembourg’s exports will also be affected. In particular, Luxembourgish companies that export to the USA or that depend on transatlantic trade flows could feel the negative impact on international and transatlantic trade.

We must also consider the impact for Luxembourg if the important EU markets – Germany and France – suffer a new slowdown of economic growth. Germany is particularly vulnerable. Its three largest export categories to the USA – chemical products, machinery and automotive and transport products – continue to suffer from weak demand as a result of recent shocks and strong competition.

A global slowdown in neighboring countries would also, logically, have an impact on Luxembourg. The importance of these elections for the Grand Duchy therefore lies in the economic impact on the EU as a whole, taking into account the single market.

Anne Brasseur, former deputy and minister of the DP

If Trump is re-elected, we can expect a retrograde and patriarchal policy, says Anne Brasseur.

How will the situation of human rights in the USA change depending on the result of the elections?

The presidential elections in the USA are revolutionary for liberal democracy and freedom, not only in the country itself, but also in the rest of the world. The result of the elections may even be a turning point for the future of human rights. A future President Kamala Harris will determine the agenda of foreign and domestic policy as much as a possible President Donald Trump.

During the electoral campaign, Donald Trump announced numerous plans for a second mandate, which disregard human rights, when he declared before cameras that he intended to use the armed forces against political opponents. If Trump is re-elected, we can expect a retrograde and patriarchal policy that rejects abortion, in line with evangelical groups.

The resistance of democratic institutions could be at risk in a possible second mandate of Trump. The repeated attacks on independent media and his tendency to promote authoritarian leadership styles suggest that even greater restrictions on fundamental rights could follow.

In the case of a future President Kamala Harris, no changes are to be expected to the Biden administration. As vice-president, Harris has already underlined her commitment to protect and expand the rights of women, minorities and the LGBTQ+ community. Especially with regard to the polarizing issue of abortion, the candidate’s statements indicate that women’s rights and access to reproductive health care should be strengthened.

It is expected that Harris will take measures to combat discrimination and racial injustice. Her agenda includes reforms of the criminal justice system, the reduction of police violence and the protection of the rights of immigrants. Under her leadership, aspects related to human rights, in particular the protection of marginalized groups, could also come to be more focused in the area of climate policy.

Besides the defense of human rights, the result of the elections will significantly determine the role of the US government in questions of security and world order.

American citizens have a new opportunity to perceive the signs of an autocratic evolution under the aegis of Trump and to decide in favor of democracy, freedom, the rule of law and human rights.

Michel Reis, pianist and composer

The famous jazz musician Michel Reis lived in the USA for ten years and continues to travel regularly to New York and Los Angeles.

How will the cultural landscape and cultural funding in the USA change depending on the result of the elections?

I cannot predict the future, however, I believe that, depending on the political party that wins, that will also have an impact in the area of funding of the arts. I am thinking of the National Endowment for the Arts, for example. This state-funded agency, which is very important for the promotion of artists in America, could receive less funding or, in the worst case, disappear if Donald Trump is elected president of the USA.

It would be a shame that a country that produced so many and great artists in recent decades and throughout the entire 20th century would cease to do so simply because the wrong political leadership would undermine the importance of the arts, or worse, artistic freedom of expression. In the case of the National Endowment for the Arts in particular, there have already been several attempts to cut all funding of the program.

Yuriko Backes, Minister of Defense

According to the Minister of Defense, the USA have no interest in putting into question the transatlantic alliance.

The NATO alliance is repeatedly put into question by Donald Trump, especially when it comes to demanding that alliance partners invest at least 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Defense spending. Some countries have still not reached this objective, including Luxembourg. What impact can we expect on the defense of Europe if Trump is elected president?

The USA know the value of our transatlantic alliance. Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine [in 2022], in violation of international law, and the illegal annexation of Crimea, in 2014, NATO has grown and grown together. The USA have no interest in putting our Alliance into question. In a multipolar world in which the rules-based international order can no longer be taken for granted, euro-atlantic democracies must remain united to defend our common interests.

At the NATO summit of 2023, in Vilnius, alliance partners agreed on the 2% objective. Luxembourg also committed to this goal and, in June of this year, I presented our plan on how to reach it by 2030. Our efforts are concentrated on the execution of this plan, in order to play our role in collective defense in a spirit of solidarity. For Luxembourg, this means doubling our Defense expenditures to around 1.46 billion euros by the end of this decade. A huge challenge, but also a necessary investment in our security, freedom and interests.

Daniel Atz, American with Luxembourgish roots

Daniel Atz runs the agency LuxCitizenship in New York.

You run an agency in New York that helps Americans with Luxembourgish ancestry to apply for Luxembourgish citizenship. To what extent will the high probability of Trump becoming president again be felt? Could that lead to an exodus of Americans with dual nationality to the Grand Duchy?

I recently returned to the United States after having spent some time in Luxembourg. There is an emerging consensus among many of my contacts in the country that Donald J. Trump could win the next elections.

If Donald Trump is re-elected, I believe that there will be a measurable increase in the number of Americans who move abroad.

As to whether a Trump victory could lead Luxembourgish dual citizens in the USA to leave the country, in our survey of July 2023 of 416 new citizens, 56% stated that “recent political or social events led them to take on a second nationality.” Although this does not allow direct conclusions about the number of people who will decide to move, it is consistent with the reactions that we receive from our clients.

In January of this year, in particular, we observed an increase in the number of inquiries about starting nationality processes, many of them referring to the upcoming elections as a motivating factor. Although I cannot speak for the intentions of more than 15,000 people, we have several indicators that the elections could have an impact on the future plans of many Luxembourgish dual citizens in the USA.

If Donald Trump is re-elected, I believe that there will be a measurable increase in the number of Americans who move abroad, continuing a trend reported by The New York Times and other media.

This trend has already even had an impact in Europe, where the increase in the number of American buyers led to an increase in property prices in cities such as Lisbon and Paris. Although I am in no way sending a warning signal to Luxembourgish politicians that this trend is imminent in the Grand Duchy, I think that European policymakers should take note.

In addition, Trump’s proposal to abolish taxation of Americans abroad based on citizenship could eliminate a significant barrier to relocation, which would further facilitate these moves.

One thing is certain: it seems that, with each passing day, we are moving more into unprecedented territory.

Xavier Bettel, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister

The Minister of Foreign Affairs Xavier Bettel does not wish to comment on the programs or proposals of the candidates in the elections.

The USA and Luxembourg share a deep partnership with historical ties, both at the political and interpersonal level. The USA are the most important trade partner of Luxembourg outside the EU. It is an indispensable economic partner for Luxembourg, with important collaborations in key sectors such as finance, industry, technology, digital technology and space. Regardless of the result of the presidential elections in America, Luxembourg is convinced that it is necessary to further strengthen our transatlantic relations. Regardless of the country concerned, we generally do not comment on the programs or proposals presented by candidates during an electoral campaign. We base our analyses and evaluations on duly adopted decisions.

Roland Arens, editor-in-chief of Luxemburger Wort

For the editor-in-chief of the Wort, Roland Arens, a large part of the American press contributed to the normalization of Trump.

Donald Trump shook traditional journalism to its foundations. How should the media deal with enemies of democracy?

At Donald Trump’s campaign appearances, the insult to the press forms an integral part of the repertoire. For years, the media have repeatedly been targets of attacks by the Republican candidate. If he wins the elections, he intends to pursue and punish the “internal enemies,” including journalists.

Trump’s threats are already taking effect. Two weeks before election day, the leadership of The Washington Post announced surprisingly that the newspaper would not support the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The newspaper (with the motto: “Democracy dies in darkness”) is owned by Amazon’s boss Jeff Bezos, whose company has been in disagreement with Trump for years. Martin Baron, former editor-in-chief of the Post, considered the decision an act of “cowardice.” The Los Angeles Times also decided not to support Harris. The newspaper is owned by a billionaire businessman.

Unlike Joe Biden, the age and mental fitness of Trump seem to have little news value.

Conflicts of this kind are not to be expected with a President Kamala Harris. But, regardless of who becomes president, the media industry would do well to scrutinize its relations with anti-democratic politicians. For years, newspapers allowed themselves to be used as suppliers of lies and conspiracy theories. Trump flooded the public with all kinds of violations of law and taboos until, in the end, almost no one was interested in them.

Unlike Joe Biden, the age and mental fitness of Trump hardly seem to be worthy of news. His campaign speeches, often incoherent, are condensed in traditional reporting to give the impression that he articulated coherent political proposals.

It is clear that, in recent years, there have been many notable journalistic works in the coverage of Trump. However, it is a historical systemic failure that large sectors of the American press have, as a consequence, helped to normalize Trump out of fear of losing objectivity. The much more important story would have been to show how this man is highly incapable of occupying the most important office in the world. This must be addressed.